Can the Canadian Dollar be Benefitial for Your Wallet? - Sure. Part 2

AUD / CAD

As for the AUD / CAD ratio, the situation here is ambiguous, the data on the demand for the ratio of these currencies are directly related to the price of the ratio. It can be seen in pic. 6. Despite the fact that the general trend continues downward, since the beginning of August, there has been a clear divergence between the price and the index. In the short term, this may lead to correction of the AUD price, however, despite a slight correction, at the moment there is no reason to say that there may be a turning point in the general trend.

The basis for such an opinion is the reached limit in the position of the major participants of the foreign exchange market.

pic. 6. Graph of the currency ratio AUD / CAD with the indicator of the position of managing large participants of the currency market from 07.18.2018 to 09.04.2018.

As can be seen in Figure 7, since the beginning of August, a divergence has been traced, indicating a position ambiguity in the next two weeks.

pic. 7. Graph of the currency ratio AUD / CAD with the indicator of the position of managing large participants of the currency market from 08/07/2018 to 09/04/2018.

At the moment, we can see that the CAD is getting stronger, which indicates a continuing trend towards Canadian strengths. The current recommendation is an increase in short positions on AUD / CAD in the short term.

USD / CAD

The overall trend for the USD / CAD ratio is on the US dollar side, while, as seen in Figure 8, since the beginning of July, the CAD is strengthening against the USD. It is also accompanied by a change in the positions of major participants in the foreign exchange market.

pic. 8. Graph of the currency ratio of USD / CAD with the indicator of the position of managing large participants of the currency market from 01.01.2018 to 09.04.2018.

At the same time, it is also noticeable that despite the index speaking about strengthening CAD, the value of the last period is a minor change, which can speak of the local uncertainty of traders and a revision of their positions in terms of currency.

pic. 9. Graph of the currency ratio of USD / CAD with the indicator of the position of managing large participants of the currency market from 08.03.2018 to 09.04.2018.

Picture 9 shows that the latter values ​​are inversely related to the indicator despite the fundamental strengthening of the CAD. The speculative demand for expectations and further strengthening of the currency continues to be at high levels, which does not allow us to break the CAD trends.

Thus, we can expect a change of direction this week towards USD growth.

In conclusion, the general situation with CAD at the moment says that the consolidation trend has not yet come to an end, and the players still have a significant margin of safety in order to increase their positions on the instrument. Thus, the long-term trend is the growth in the value of CAD, which will lead to a reduction in the value of the EUR / CAD, AUD / CAD ratio and the probable reversal of the trend in USD / CAD.

The next few weeks will become a sign for the instruments due to the release of strong statistics by various countries.

Successful bidding!