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Today we are going to overview EUR/USD and make a forecast for the near future. We will focus on the positions of major market traders.
The EUR/USD currency pair is the most popular trading pair in the world. It has been like this for a lot of time because there is a close connection between the “old world” and the “new” one. We know that both the US and the European Union are very active participants in the expansion of each other’s markets. It means that this tool is not only a hedging tool but also a diversification instrument for private and institutional investors.
Picture 1. Graph of the ratio EUR/USD in the period from 06/10/2018 to 05/11/2018
As a result, EUR/USD is the most liquid and attractive tool for making investments. We also know that the information field around a given currency pair is extremely ambiguous, and events often take an unexpected character. As it can be seen in Picture 1, the dynamics of the value of 1 euro in dollars is very ambiguous, as a result of the tight confrontation between the bulls and bears in the market. However, a large investor has long studied all the patterns of behavior of a currency pair, which is not available to an individual investor due to the complexity of the process.
Picture 2. The cost chart of the EUR/USD ratio and the index chart of the positions of large market participants on EUR/USD in the period from 06/10/2018 through 05/11/2018.
As it can be seen in Picture 2, the positive trend on the index chart of the positions of large market participants says that the prevailing mood is in the direction of increasing sales of the euro.
So based on the index values of the positions of large traders, it can be concluded that in the nearest future it is better to perform operations “lower”.