American Swiss roller coaster

We've performed an analysis for a lot of assets and decided to stop now on USDCHF because this asset is of interest of fundamental, as well as technical points of view.

Basic arguments

Since the ratio between the rates of the USA and Switzerland is quite big and equals to 3,25%, it pushes the price of instrument upwards even in the absence of interest. So, the current forward rate is 0,9997 USD per CHF, which means that the asset significantly underestimated in theoretical value.

Technical arguments

From the technical point of view, a long-term exchange rate remains in the growth phase, and the current situation is a correction after rapid price growth and reevaluation of the USD assets. However, this correction most probably will end soon as it is somewhere near its end. We can expect another period of long-term growth and return to a fair price.

Analysis of big traders

Picture 1. A price chart of USDCHF and a chart of big traders for the period of 23.06.2019 - 23.07.2019.

As we can see in picture 1, the current demand for the asset remains stable low, which provides excellent speculative investment opportunities for this asset and receiving increased profits.

Forecast

Keeping in mind everything mentioned above, we can note that we expect an UPWARDS movement for this asset. The forward rate and technical situation indicate it. So, we forecast UPPER movement.

We recommend to use the following indicators for better and convenient control over your positions:

• RSI
• Moving average

Moving average reflects the trend movement, and RSI helps to recognize if the market is overbought or oversold.

For keeping the moderate level of risk, we recommend to keep the ratio: 2 deals UP and 1 DOWN.